2005 - The Future

The Clean Air Journey Ahead

The 50th anniversary of the Bay Area Air Quality Management District affords the opportunity to reflect on the past, celebrate our accomplishments and plan for the clean air journey ahead.

We have a lot to celebrate. Bay Area air is substantially cleaner than it was fifty years ago. 2004 was our cleanest year on record. We met federal standards for ground level ozone every day, and today, the Bay Area has the cleanest air of all of California ’s major urban areas.

But the biggest challenges may lie ahead. Maintaining what we have may be the biggest challenge yet. Even in our cleanest year, the Bay Area is still not in attainment with State ozone and particulate matter (PM) standards. Expected increases in population, motor vehicle ownership and distances traveled and climate change will exacerbate this situation and could turn the clock back if we do not begin to address these issues now.

Air quality in the Bay Area has improved significantly since the Air District was created in the fall of 1955. But the region will face many challenges in the years ahead, as we work with Bay Area residents to keep the air clear and the skies blue.

The Air District has a good track record, but with appropriate foresight and planning, we can do more. To succeed, it will take leadership, an integrated approach – from cutting edge science to implementation of smart growth measures – even stronger relationships with all of the Air District’s partners and the active engagement of communities and individual citizens.

Looking ahead – to the next 50 years – the Air District envisions a Bay Area that remains a healthy, vibrant and beautiful place to live.Yet, our greatest challenges are yet to come – energy consumption will increase with population and economic growth, and that, particularly when combined with a warmer climate, could cause significant increases in air pollution.The region’s ability to overcome these obstacles will be largely dependent on a major shift in public perception and a stronger movement towards personal responsibility for clean air.

Population and Economic Growth

Today, the Bay Area’s largest source of smog forming emissions – over 60% – comes from mobile sources like cars, trucks, buses and construction equipment.The number of mobile sources will rise considerably along with expected population growth. The Bay Area’s population is forecast to increase by 29% by the year 2030 – from 6.8 million in 2000 to 8.8 million in 2030 with the number of jobs increasing to 5.2 million. Even with anticipated gains in transit ridership and carpooling to work, the region is projected to have a minimum of 35% more – or 7.5 million additional vehicular trips a year.

Climate Change

The earth’s surface and ocean temperatures are rising, with the 1990’s the warmest decade on record. Today, most scientists agree that man made (or anthropogenic) sources of greenhouse gases are, at least partly, to blame. The largest source of greenhouse gases in the Bay Area is mobile sources. Carbon dioxide is the most abundant of the greenhouse gases; however, other gases like methane and nitrous oxide are also involved.

Unless we make substantial cuts in emissions to counterbalance the heat affect, or mitigate the effect of the warmer temperatures in other ways, we should expect more unhealthy air days.

Finding emission reductions will not be easy, because warmer temperatures also cause an increase in harmful air emissions. When it’s warmer, more fuel evaporates, engines work harder and demand for electric power results in more pollution from power plants. Warmer weather can also have other bad health effects – extending blooming seasons and exacerbating conditions for those with allergies and asthma.

Photographs taken of the Arctic ice cap in 1979 (left) and 2003 (right) clearly show the effects of rising global temperatures. The Air District passed a Climate Change Resolution in June of 2005 indicating the agency's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the Bay Area.

Individual Responsibility

Individual behavior must be changed if we are to succeed because the majority of Bay Area air contaminants come from activities that involve individuals, like driving motor vehicles and using consumer products and gasoline powered lawn and garden equipment. While there is still work to be done to reduce industrial and commercial emissions to even lower levels, individual consumers must change their behavior if we are to make substantial reductions.

Cutting edge science will continue to form the fundamental basis of all of the Air District’s work. Core programs like permitting, planning, air monitoring, forecasting and enforcement will remain a priority and will be enhanced in the future. In addition, there will be targeted initiatives to respond to emerging challenges.

Some initiatives are underway, including reducing woodsmoke, diesel particulate matter and other air toxics, and supporting conversions to alternative fuels. Others – like reducing greenhouse gases, expanding the Air District’s message to help reduce asthma related triggers and actively promoting smart, clean air choices – are still in the formative stages.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

On June 1 st , 2005, the Air District’s Board of Directors adopted a resolution to address climate change and climate protection through outreach and education, data collection and analysis, technical assistance and leadership and support for local efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This initiative is still in the formative stage, but much of the work the Air District is already doing to reduce air pollution will be incorporated into it because making reductions in criteria pollutants has the co-benefit of reducing greenhouse gases too.

Many municipal and community-based climate change programs are underway in the region. Supporting the development of local greenhouse gas inventories, similar to the inventory the Air District funded for Sonoma County in 2004, is an option. Developing appropriate model ordinances is also being considered, along with incorporating greenhouse gas information into the Air District’s educational materials. The Air District is also working with the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), which is the leading the effort to get cities involved in climate change worldwide.

The Community Air Risk Evaluation (CARE) Program

The Community Air Risk Evaluation (CARE) program was launched in 2004 to assess and reduce health risks from toxic air contaminants in Bay Area neighborhoods, particularly diesel particulate which has been identified as a carcinogen and a contributor to non-cancerous respiratory diseases like asthma.

At the heart of CARE is a technical study to find out which Bay Area neighborhoods experience the highest levels of air toxic emissions including diesel emissions. To make this determination, the Air District is developing emission inventories that include not only stationary sources of air pollution but also mobile sources – like cars, trucks, ships, trains and other transportation vehicles, as well as area sources like paints and consumer products. The data will be entered into Geographical Information System software and displayed on a gridded Bay Area map. The Air District can then dedicate resources to reducing toxic air emissions in the most impacted communities.

Reducing woodsmoke

Wood burning is a major source of particulate matter (PM) air pollution in the Bay Area during winter months, and the Air District’s woodsmoke initiative focuses on promoting model ordinances that reduce woodsmoke and educating the public about the health risks associated with breathing it. On a typical winter night, woodsmoke from the Bay Area’s 1.7 million woodburning fireplaces and stoves produces about 30% of the particulate pollution in our air. On nights when there are temperature inversions, the percentage can be higher.

The Air District is promoting a model ordinance that applies to new housing, or renovations of existing homes when a fireplace is involved. The model ordinance allows the installation of natural gas fireplaces, EPA certified equipment and pellet stoves. These “cleaner” burning appliances reduce woodsmoke pollution from 75 to 99% over traditional open-air fireplaces. In addition, the ordinance prohibits burning wood when Spare the Air Tonight advisories are issued and air quality is expected to be unhealthy to breathe. As of September, 2005, 37 out of 101 Bay Area cities and 7 of the 9 Bay Area counties have adopted some version of the wood smoke ordinance.

Supporting conversions to alternative fuels

The Air District is also actively encouraging the use of advanced technology, low emission vehicles. Several grant programs help fund the purchase of alternative fueled light and heavy-duty vehicles and the fueling infrastructure to support them, as well as replacement or retrofitting of diesel engines. These programs are expected to expand over the next few years, both in terms of the amount of

funding available and the availability of incentives to convert private sector vehicles.

One of the Air District's two hydrogen fuel cell cars was displayed on World Environment Day in June of 2005.

The Air District is also supporting a hydrogen-fueled bus demonstration project involving AC Transit, Golden Gate Transit, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority and San Mateo County Transit. The goal of the project is to find the most effective way to operate a hydrogen-fueled bus fleet. The Air District is also taking part in a demonstration project using two Daimler Chrysler hydrogen fuel cell cars to gather data on their performance.

Actively promoting “Smart Clean Air Choices"

The Air District will be developing messages aimed at individual consumers. The messages will focus on personal responsibility and things that anyone can do to reduce air pollution – most with little effort – but which collectively can have a big effect on energy consumption and air quality. Giving the public the information they need to make wise choices, like buying the cleanest car, public transit subsidies, or purchasing green appliances improve air quality and are money-saving measures as well.

Expanding the Air District’s message

Almost 12% of Californians have asthma - with the greatest incidence among children from 12 to 17 years old. Asthma is greatly affected by air pollution both indoors and outdoors. The Air District’s concerns about poor air quality do not stop when someone goes inside and closes the door. A typical pollutant released indoors has a 1,000 times greater chance of being inhaled as the same pollutant released outdoors into urban air. In addition, most people spend the vast majority of their time indoors – California adults an average of 87% and children under the age of 12 only slightly less, 86%.

There are many sources of indoor air pollution that may trigger asthma and other health conditions like smoking, improperly vented gas stoves, off gassing of toxics used in building materials and furnishings, ozone creating air cleaners, mold, asbestos and even outdoor air. Most of these sources can be reduced substantially with education. The Air District is currently exploring ways of being involved in this effort.

Meeting the challenge

The Air District is committed to doing everything possible to assure that Bay Area residents will have clean air to breathe, well into the future. But we cannot succeed without the involvement and participation of all the diverse communities living in the nine Bay Area counties.

The Air District has decided to use this occasion – our 50th Anniversary – to officially invite you to join us in this effort. Everyone who lives in the Bay Area has a stake in preserving and improving our quality of life. Partner with us, become educated about the challenges and take personal responsibility for making the changes that are necessary. Join us as we embark on the clean air journey ahead.